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 The Middle East ad market could grow more than 7% annually for the next two years, after shrinking 18.6% in 2009, according to the latest figures from ZenithOptimedia.
This compares with a forecast 0.9% growth globally in 2010, after a 10% fall this year. The extreme differences between both the fall and the forecast rise demonstrate the rather volatile nature of the Middle East’s marketing sector (the only region to show a bigger 2009 fall was Central and Eastern Europe).
Zenith’s figures for the region are also an improvement on its position two months ago, when it was projecting an overall 20.6% fall this year, and growth of only 5.3% next.
These figures are specifically for the Middle East (unlike the ones in October), stripping out Africa and other miscellaneous bits included in the agency’s headline figures – which predict Africa/ME/RoW growth of 7%, down from its October prediction of 14%, thanks to a sharply downgraded prediction for South Africa, according to Jonathan Barnard, head of publications at Zenith.
(Incidentally, with the Middle East figures to hand, we can see this region makes up around half of the Africa/ME/RoW spend, with $8.5 billion coming from the Middle East, out of a total of $18 billion for the wider region. So now we know.)
Globally, Zenith’s report was more upbeat than in the past: “This is our first upgrade to 2010 since we published our forecasts in June 2008, just before the full extent of the financial crisis became clear and the advertising downturn began. We expect the recovery to strengthen steadily as corporate and consumer confidence continue to improve, with 3.9% growth in 2011 and 4.8% growth in 2012.”
One regional market is actually projected to fall next year: Egypt’s figures are slated to decline from $716 million this year to $681 million in 2010, and only clawing back up to $714 million in 2012.
Otherwise everyone else is on the up-and-up, including the UAE – although this does of course assume the country still exists in the new year, and hasn’t been swallowed up by the sands, as the international media appears to believe will happen.
Hyperbole aside, were the Dubai debt problems to result in more serious and widespread economic shocks, this could lead to an upset in the regional numbers. Let’s hope not, eh?
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